Neutral on swine flu
Posted by Dan on May 17th, 2009
2009
May 17
The game has changed. The CDC is not reporting daily totals any more. Two days ago, the total was 4714, and it’s almost certainly gone over 5000 by now, but the 5000+ contract is still open because the official total is still 4714.
When the game changes, it’s time to change strategy. This is not the swine flu market of two weeks ago. Swine flu is out of the news, the contracts have less time to expiration, the targets are farther apart, and the CDC is changing the way it reports. Now is the time to minimize risk and wait for the next opportunity.
See also: Bullish on swine flu
May 17th, 2009 at 11:09 pm
Hi… as I can see it, you need to boost up you authority at technorati and it would also benefit your blog’s other attribute… perhaps you could consider helping one another….
hope to hear from you soon!!!
May 18th, 2009 at 6:23 am
May 18th CDC update: 5123 confirmed cases. Looks like the CDC is updating Monday through Friday, but not on weekends. The 5000+ contracts have expired.
May 19th, 2009 at 7:27 am
May 19th CDC update: 5469 confirmed cases.
May 20th, 2009 at 6:13 am
May 20th CDC update: 5710 confirmed cases.
May 21st, 2009 at 6:35 am
May 21st CDC update: 5764 confirmed cases. I am very happy not to be on either side of this trade at the moment.
May 22nd, 2009 at 6:42 am
May 22nd CDC update: 6552 confirmed cases.
May 26th, 2009 at 6:21 am
May 26th CDC update: 6764 confirmed cases. Reporting switches to Monday, Wednesday, Friday.
May 27th, 2009 at 7:00 am
May 27th CDC update: 7927 confirmed cases. A huge move in the 10000+ contract, and I missed it.
OK, no problem. The irregularities in the reporting process make it difficult to judge the spread of swine flu. I don’t mind being on the sidelines here.
May 29th, 2009 at 8:08 am
May 29th CDC update: 8975 confirmed cases.
June 1st, 2009 at 7:07 am
June 1st CDC update: 10053 confirmed cases. The 10000+ contracts have expired. The pace seems to be picking up.
June 3rd, 2009 at 4:32 pm
June 3rd CDC update: 11054 confirmed cases.
June 5th, 2009 at 7:54 am
June 5th CDC update: 13217 confirmed cases.