Bullish on swine flu
Intrade has some prediction contracts on the number of confirmed cases of swine flu. For example, the 500+ contract pays off if:
500 or more cases of A/H1N1 Swine Flu to be confirmed in the US before midnight ET on 30 Jun 2009
The CDC provides a daily count, currently at 226. The count is cumulative, and 5 new confirmed cases per day would reach 500 by June 30. Sounds like a slam dunk to me.
It is a bit macabre to get up in the morning and check the CDC swine flu count to see if I made any money while I was asleep. In my defense, let me say that this is primarily a game to me, a puzzle to be solved. I’ll take either side of the bet, depending on the circumstances. At the moment, I’m long the 500+ contract because I think that’s the best value. (I’m arguing that indifference and opportunism are morally superior to schadenfreude.)
May 4th, 2009 at 6:31 am
Feelthy capitalist pig!
May 4th, 2009 at 7:09 am
May 4th CDC update: 286 confirmed cases.
May 5th, 2009 at 7:59 am
May 5th CDC update: 403 confirmed cases.
The 500+ contracts are pretty much over. Bought some 1000+ contracts.
May 5th, 2009 at 11:46 am
Feelthy RICH capitalist pig!
But for a small piece of the slop I will breath optimisticly while upon both planes I’m to fly aboard tomorrow.
May 6th, 2009 at 7:31 am
May 6th CDC update: 642 confirmed cases.
The 500+ contracts are now settled. There’s no money to be made any more in the 1000+ contracts. CDC has developed a new, faster, diagnostic test, and distributed it to all 50 states. This should increase the counts regardless of the spread of the flu. Bought some 2000+ contracts.
May 7th, 2009 at 7:14 am
May 7th CDC update: 896 confirmed cases.
May 8th, 2009 at 7:45 am
May 8th CDC update: 1639 confirmed cases.
This is starting to look exponential. The 1000+ contracts are now settled. Bought a few 5000+ contracts.
May 9th, 2009 at 6:57 am
May 9th CDC update: 2254 confirmed cases.
The 2000+ contracts are now settled. Intrade introduces contracts for 15000+, 20000+ and 25000+.
May 10th, 2009 at 9:44 am
May 10th CDC update: 2532 confirmed. Is swine flu losing it’s momentum?
May 11th, 2009 at 7:30 am
May 11th CDC update: 2600 confirmed cases.
May 12th, 2009 at 8:16 am
May 12th CDC update: 3009 confirmed cases.
May 13th, 2009 at 11:16 am
May 13th CDC update: 3352 confirmed cases.
May 14th, 2009 at 10:00 am
May 14th CDC update: 4298 confirmed cases.
May 15th, 2009 at 7:28 am
May 15th CDC update: 4714 confirmed cases.
May 15th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Indifference and opportunism as co-joined twin evils is morally superior? Or is each one independently morally superior? And what about the role that both indifference and opportunism play in schadenfreude? 4 people have also died in the US.