Bullish on swine flu
Intrade has some prediction contracts on the number of confirmed cases of swine flu. For example, the 500+ contract pays off if:
500 or more cases of A/H1N1 Swine Flu to be confirmed in the US before midnight ET on 30 Jun 2009
The CDC provides a daily count, currently at 226. The count is cumulative, and 5 new confirmed cases per day would reach 500 by June 30. Sounds like a slam dunk to me.
It is a bit macabre to get up in the morning and check the CDC swine flu count to see if I made any money while I was asleep. In my defense, let me say that this is primarily a game to me, a puzzle to be solved. I’ll take either side of the bet, depending on the circumstances. At the moment, I’m long the 500+ contract because I think that’s the best value. (I’m arguing that indifference and opportunism are morally superior to schadenfreude.)