Ron Paul is down to 4.7 at Intrade (I shorted at 7.7). I didn’t expect this to happen until late January. OK, so I was wrong, but at least I’m wrong in a good way. My bet is paying off faster than expected. What happened?
Mike Huckabee happened. The only plausible scenario for a Paul nomination is a surge in the polls followed by wins in the early primaries. The come-from-behind, underdog story is there alright, but it features Mike Huckabee, not Ron Paul.
Paul’s supporters are already urging him to forget about the Republican nomination and run as an independent (Intrade gives the odds at 25%). His campaign has raised a lot of money, and money has its own momentum. An independent campaign would push the day of reckoning from January to November, allowing the true believers to remain delusional for a few more months.
Intrade also has a contract for Ron Paul winning the general election. I didn’t short that one because it was priced lower, presumably because of the possibility that Ron Paul would win the Republican nomination only to lose to Dennis Kucinich in November. If he switches to an independent campaign, I may be able short Ron Paul all over again with the other contract.
Speaking of delusional: